Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.619941 2.797091 2.986453 3.205017 3.451720 3.723228 4.046964
2025-02-16 2.335667 2.571595 2.837594 3.163406 3.557012 4.024407 4.633010
2025-02-23 2.162098 2.430007 2.743234 3.143387 3.651749 4.292262 5.189443
2025-03-02 2.030162 2.317212 2.662209 3.117707 3.720423 4.518693 5.711675
2025-03-09 1.925171 2.224983 2.593546 3.093754 3.779231 4.728400 6.235291
2025-03-16 1.845090 2.155899 2.545692 3.088042 3.855751 4.964903 6.835326
2025-03-23 1.793589 2.118204 2.533388 3.125649 3.992362 5.302155 7.663886
2025-03-30 1.718036 2.044143 2.467037 3.081141 4.001890 5.441113 8.176051
2025-04-06 1.649600 1.975400 2.403006 3.033775 4.000287 5.558520 8.671174
2025-04-13 1.576336 1.896593 2.320659 2.953549 3.939326 5.566867 8.949378
2025-04-20 1.547084 1.875235 2.315859 2.985822 4.057408 5.897737 9.992641
2025-04-27 1.528651 1.867277 2.328687 3.044322 4.222477 6.337148 11.437647
2025-05-04 1.505270 1.852036 2.331098 3.088303 4.370384 6.775822 13.097948
2025-05-11 1.463101 1.808805 2.290815 3.062482 4.394495 6.972971 14.197356
2025-05-18 1.426201 1.771433 2.257136 3.044585 4.430316 7.199920 15.510485
2025-05-25 1.390102 1.733761 2.221143 3.020322 4.451620 7.398682 16.854205
2025-06-01 1.356746 1.698765 2.187506 2.997611 4.473248 7.601855 18.358777
2025-06-08 1.329894 1.672142 2.165225 2.992193 4.526939 7.890043 20.445406
2025-06-15 1.314852 1.662014 2.167396 3.027861 4.664055 8.411213 24.156364
2025-06-22 1.281813 1.624437 2.125750 2.985647 4.640710 8.517489 25.892842
2025-06-29 1.249811 1.587488 2.083781 2.940699 4.608033 8.594397 27.591345
2025-07-06 1.211973 1.540977 2.025486 2.864512 4.504981 8.463595 27.876400
2025-07-13 1.200536 1.533289 2.027682 2.895169 4.629016 8.995596 33.636595